Decide: Target Selection Standards
You have decided what to attack and how it will be attacked. Now you decide how good a report must be before you are willing to act on it.
In this scenario we will use three standards.
| Standard | The question it asks | What determines the answer |
|---|---|---|
| Target location error (TLE) | How accurate is the location of the target? | The weapon. Some weapons require precise coordinates to be effective. Others are “area fire”. |
| Minimum size | Is there enough of the target to be worth what we will spend? | The payoff. What do we gain, against what we fire? |
| Timeliness | How long does the answer to the first two questions stay true? | The target's ability to move, or our weapon's ability to guide to the target. |
Read them in that order. The first two describe the report at the moment it was made. The third is the clock running on both of them.
Standard 1 — Target location error
Target location error is the gap between where we think the target is and where it actually is, measured in metres. It comes from the sensor, not from the target. A forward observer may be capable of locating a target within 100 metres. A drone sensor may be accurate within 10 metres, for example.
The weapon decides how much error it can absorb. The bigger the shell and the more guns firing, the more location error the mission can survive.
| Weapon | Largest location error it can accept |
|---|---|
| 155 mm M109A2 battery | 200 m |
| 105 mm howitzer battery | 100 m |
| One-way attack UAS | 1,000 m |
These figures are set for this scenario. They are not published doctrine. The location error a weapon can accept depends on several factors, including its circular error probable, the terrain, and the number of rounds in a given volley.
The 105 mm howitzer battery accepts less error than the 155 mm howitzer, because a 105 mm shell covers less ground than a 155 mm shell. The same report can therefore be good enough for one weapon and useless for another.
Task 1.7 — Is the location good enough?
NOT DONEForward Observer: “Engineers on the far span. Accurate to about 100 metres.”
ESI: “Command-net transmissions, emitter somewhere within about 1 kilometre.”
Long-range ISR UAS: “Tubes in the open, grid read from video. Accurate to about 100 metres.”
sUAS: “Possible launcher position on the high ground. Accurate to about 150 metres.”
Standard 2 — Minimum size
Minimum size asks how much of the target must be present before it is worth engaging. Ammunition is limited, and after each fire mission the artillery battery will displace and be unavailable for 20 minutes.
| Target | Minimum size | Why that number |
|---|---|---|
| 120 mm mortar platoon | 2 of 3 tubes | We are buying attrition. One tube is not worth a battery mission. |
| ATGM section | 1 launcher confirmed | One launcher can still kill our lead vehicle. |
| Command post | Command vehicle or structure | We are targeting key leaders and equipment. |
| Engineer obstacle team | One team with charges | We are not buying attrition here. We are preventing the loss of the bridge. |
Task 1.8 — Is there enough there?
NOT DONEThree reports. Each meets its location and timeliness standards. Judge each one on minimum size only.
Report 1 — Long-range ISR UAS
“One mortar tube observed moving into a firing position. No other tubes visible in the area.”
Report 2 — Scout observation post
“Two engineers on the far span with satchel charges. They are working at the abutment.”
Report 3 — sUAS
“One ATGM launcher confirmed in a prepared position on the high ground. Second launcher not located.”
Standard 3 — Timeliness
Timeliness is the clock running on the other two standards. A location that was exact an hour ago describes a place the target has left. A size that was right an hour ago describes a platoon that has since dispersed.
Some targets we watch continuously. For those, timeliness is zero: we fire while we still have the target in sight, and the clock starts the moment we lose it. For the rest, the brigade uses a rule:
Extract — 77th Brigade Fire Support SOP
Setting timeliness. Intelligence tells us how often an enemy element relocates. He relocates on a schedule, because he cannot know when we have found him. What intelligence cannot tell us is when he arrived. Our report may have caught him in his first hour in position, or his last.
To manage that risk, this brigade sets timeliness at one quarter of the time the element is expected to stay in place. This is not a guarantee. It is the commander accepting that some missions will land on empty ground, in exchange for being able to engage targets that nobody is watching at this moment.
Where an element moves as soon as it is used — a mortar platoon after firing, a reconnaissance team on foot — no fraction is useful. Those targets require continuous observation.
Task 1.9 — Set the timeliness standards
NOT DONEApply the brigade rule. Each target is shown with the asset that will engage it. Where the S-2 has given you how long the target's situation stays unchanged, take one quarter of it.
The team leaves as soon as the charges are set.
Displaces immediately after every fire mission.** In this scenario, friendly forces do not possess the capability of conducting counterbattery fire missions using counterbattery radar.
Dug in, but a small team that can move quickly. The commander accepts a short window of risk.
The S-2 assesses the enemy relocates command posts every 24 hours.
All three at once
In the fire support cell no report is checked against one standard. It is checked against all of them, and it must pass every one.
Task 1.10 — Judge a real report
NOT DONEThis report has just arrived. The target is the battalion command post, and your attack guidance assigns it to the 155 mm M109A2 battery. Select every standard this report fails. If it passes a standard, leave it unchecked.
Report — Electronic signals indication
“Strong repeated command-net transmissions. Estimated emitter location vicinity grid 38 42XX 65XX.”
The whole worksheet
You built three products across three pages. In a fire support cell they are not three pieces of paper. They are three bands of one worksheet, sometimes called the HAT — HPTL, AGM, TSS. Read a column downwards and you have the complete instruction for one target: what it is, how good a report must be, and what happens when a report arrives.
| Priority | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target | Engineer obstacle team | ATGM section | 120 mm mortar platoon | Battalion command post | |
| 105 mm howitzer battery | Maximum location error | 2100 m | 2100 m | 1100 m | 3100 m |
| Minimum size | One team with charges | One launcher confirmed | Two of three tubes | Command vehicle or structure | |
| Timeliness | Continuous observation | 15 minutes | Continuous observation | 6 hours | |
| 155 mm M109A2 battery | Maximum location error | 3200 m | 3200 m | 2200 m | 1200 m |
| Minimum size | One team with charges | One launcher confirmed | Two of three tubes | Command vehicle or structure | |
| Timeliness | Continuous observation | 15 minutes | Continuous observation | 6 hours | |
| One-way attack UAS | Maximum location error | 11,000 m | 11,000 m | 31,000 m | 21,000 m |
| Minimum size | One team with charges | One launcher confirmed | Two of three tubes | Command vehicle or structure | |
| Timeliness | 15 minutes | 1 hour | 15 minutes | 6 hours | |
| When | Immediate | Planned | Immediate | As acquired | |
| Damage | Neutralize | Suppress | Neutralize | Destroy | |
1 The yellow number on each location error cell is the attack order you set in 1B. Read it down a column: against that one target, 1 is the primary means, 2 the alternate, 3 the tertiary. The same weapon can be the alternate for more than one target.
The three heavy lines divide the three products. The top band is the HPTL you built in 1A. The middle band is the TSS from 1C. The bottom band is the AGM from 1B.
The middle band gives every weapon its own block of standards, because the standards are not the same for every weapon. Read one block across and you have the rule for that weapon against all four targets. Read one column down through all three blocks and you have every rule that applies to that target.
The worksheet is finished and the commander approves it. One step is left before the fighting starts: turning an approved worksheet into a plan for this ground, at this hour.