Decide: Target Selection Standards
You have decided what to attack and how it will be attacked. Now you decide how good a report must be before you are willing to act on it.
In this scenario we will use three standards.
| Standard | The question it asks | What determines the answer |
|---|---|---|
| Target location error (TLE) | How accurate is the location of the target? | The weapon. Some weapons require precise coordinates to be effective. Others are “area fire”. |
| Minimum size | Is the target big enough to be worth the resources? | The payoff. What do we gain, against what we fire? |
| Timeliness | If we lose track of the target, how long until the target location is determined to be invalid? | The target's ability to move, or our weapon's ability to guide to the target. |
Standard 1 — Target location error
Target location error is the gap between where we think the target is and where it actually is, measured in metres. It comes from the sensor, not from the target. A forward observer may be capable of locating a target within 100 metres. A drone sensor may be accurate within 10 metres, for example.
The weapon determines how much error can be accepted. The bigger the shell and the more guns firing, the more location error the mission can survive.
| Weapon | Largest location error it can accept |
|---|---|
| M109 155 mm battery | 200 m |
| M101 105 mm howitzer battery | 100 m |
| One-way attack UAS | 1,000 m |
These figures are set for this scenario. They are not published doctrine. The location error a weapon can accept depends on several factors, including its circular error probable, the terrain, and the number of rounds in a given volley.
The M101 105 mm howitzer battery accepts less error than the 155 mm howitzer, because a 105 mm shell covers less ground than a 155 mm shell. The same report can therefore be good enough for one weapon and useless for another.
Task 1.7 — Is the location good enough?
NOT DONEForward Observer: “Engineers on the far bridge. Accurate to about 100 metres.”
ESI: “Command-net transmissions, emitter somewhere within about 1 kilometre.”
Long-range ISR UAS: “Tubes in the open, grid read from video. Accurate to about 100 metres.”
sUAS: “Possible launcher position on the high ground. Accurate to about 150 metres.”
Standard 2 — Minimum size
Minimum size asks how much of the target must be present before it is worth engaging. Ammunition is limited, and after each fire mission the artillery battery will displace and be unavailable for 20 minutes.
| Target | Minimum size | Why that number |
|---|---|---|
| 120 mm mortar platoon | 1 mortar | Any size that can damage the bridge is worth engaging. |
| ATGM section | 1 launcher confirmed | One launcher can still kill our lead vehicle. |
| Command post | Command vehicle or structure | We are targeting key leaders and equipment. |
| Engineer obstacle team | One team with charges | Any size that can damage the bridge is worth engaging. We are preventing the loss of the bridge. |
Task 1.8 — Is there enough there?
NOT DONEFour reports. Each meets its location and timeliness standards. Judge each one on minimum size only.
Report 1 — Long-range ISR UAS
“Two mortar tubes observed moving into a firing position. No other tubes visible in the area.”
Report 2 — Scout team
“Two engineers on the far bridge with satchel charges. They are working at the abutment.”
Report 3 — sUAS
“One ATGM launcher confirmed in a prepared position on the high ground. Second launcher not located.”
Report 4 — Long-range ISR UAS
“A group of soldiers around a map. A radio is nearby.”
Standard 3 — Timeliness
The timeliness standard only applies if we are not currently observing the target. It describes the amount of time a target can last unobserved before we decide we may not shoot. A target may move to a different location, causing us to miss if we do not continually observe it.
For targets with the ability to move, shooting without constant observation is risky, and the commander must weigh this against missing the opportunity to engage it. For targets that continuously move, the timeliness standard is often zero.
Task 1.9 — Set the timeliness standards
NOT DONEThis High Payoff Target may be mobile vehicles and heavy equipment or a small team of dismounts placing charges. Either way, they are likely to be mobile when we find them.
The mortar platoon displaces immediately following fire missions, but this takes about 10 minutes for a trained team.
Dismounted and highly mobile.
Intelligence assesses the enemy changes command locations every 48 hours. The commander will accept the risk up to a quarter of its standard relocation time.
Combining three tables: HPTL - AGM - TSS
The High Payoff Target List, Attack Guidance Matrix, and Target Selection Standards can be combined into one table for ease of use. Below is the approved HPTL AGM TSS, often called the “HAT” that we will use for Operation RIVER GATE.
| Priority | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target | Engineer obstacle team | ATGM section | 120 mm mortar platoon | Battalion command post | |
| M101 105 mm howitzer battery | Maximum location error | 2100 m | 2100 m | 1100 m | 2100 m |
| Minimum size | One team with charges | One launcher confirmed | 1 mortar | Command vehicle or structure | |
| Timeliness | Continuous observation | Continuous observation | 5 minutes | 12 hours | |
| M109 155 mm battery | Maximum location error | 3200 m | 3200 m | 2200 m | 1200 m |
| Minimum size | One team with charges | One launcher confirmed | 2 mortars | Command vehicle or structure | |
| Timeliness | Continuous observation | Continuous observation | 5 minutes | 12 hours | |
| One-way attack UAS | Maximum location error | 11,000 m | 11,000 m | 31,000 m | 31,000 m |
| Minimum size | One team with charges | One launcher confirmed | 1 mortar | Command vehicle or structure | |
| Timeliness | 15 minutes | 15 minutes | 5 minutes | 12 hours | |
| When | Immediate | Planned | Immediate | As acquired | |
| Damage | Neutralize | Suppress | Neutralize | Destroy | |
1 The yellow number on each location error cell is the attack order you set in 1B. Read it down a column: against that one target, 1 is the primary means, 2 the alternate, 3 the tertiary. The same weapon can be the alternate for more than one target.
Task 1.10 — Approve the fire mission
NOT DONEAn enemy mortar position, spotted 15 minutes ago by long-range ISR that has since flown home to recharge its batteries. Location accurate to 50 m.
The location is not the problem. 50 m is inside every location error on the worksheet, so all three weapons would accept the grid. Timeliness is what fails. The mortar platoon is allowed 5 minutes against all three weapons, because five minutes is how long it takes them to leave, and this report is already 15 minutes old. The ISR that found them has gone home, so nobody is watching that grid now. Whatever we fire lands on a position they have left. Do not engage: send it back and task a sensor to find them again.
Human intelligence reports the position of enemy command tents, with key leaders seen entering 6 hours ago. Location accurate to 50 m.
Every standard passes, and that is the point of this one. 50 m is inside all three location errors. Command tents with key leaders answer the minimum size, which asks for a command vehicle or a structure. The command post is allowed 12 hours, so a report 6 hours old is still good. When more than one weapon is permitted, the attack order decides. Read the command post column down the location error cells: the M109 155 mm battery carries the 1, so it is the primary means.
A small UAS is looking at the ATGM position right now. We are out of one-way attack drones. Location accurate to 200 m.
Timeliness passes: the ATGM section demands continuous observation from a gun, and the small UAS is watching it as the report arrives. Now walk the attack order down that column. The drone is the primary means, and we have none left. The M101 105 mm howitzer battery is next, but it accepts only 100 m and this report is 200 m, so it is out on location error. The M109 155 mm battery accepts 200 m, which this report just meets. That is what the order is for: walk down it until you reach a weapon that is both available and inside its own standards.
Long-range ISR sighted a mobile command trailer under tow, moving slowly across a field. The ISR has since returned to base to recharge. The location is 5 minutes old, and the command post was moving when it was seen. By now the location will likely be inaccurate by several hundred metres because the target is moving.
The target is a single vehicle and, more importantly, it is moving. Timeliness passes — the command post is allowed 12 hours and this report is only 5 minutes old — but the location does not. Several hundred metres is outside the 100 m the M101 accepts and outside the 200 m the M109 accepts, so both batteries are out on location error. It is well inside the 1,000 m the drone accepts, because the drone does not need an exact grid: it flies to the area, searches, and the operator puts it onto what he can see. That is why you walk past the two batteries above it on the attack order.