Phase 4: Assess

Assessment runs through all four functions of D3A, not just the last one.

We do not build one plan and hold it. New guidance, a new detection, a result we did not expect — each one can change what we do next. When assessment shows the commander's guidance has not been met, decisions made in Decide are reopened.

	Operations process	D3A
Continuous assessment	Planning	Decide	In Decide, we adjust the plan when information changes, based on continuous assessment.
	Preparation	Detect	In Detect, we adjust when we assess new information as it is detected.
	Execution	Deliver	In Deliver, we make recommendations following attacks.
		Assess	And at the end of the mission, we assess our overall targeting strategy's measure of performance and measure of effectiveness.

Combat assessment

After each engagement, we conduct a combat assessment. A combat assessment is specific to an engagement.

3 parts of combat assessment	The question it answers
Battle damage assessment (BDA)	What did the attack do to the target?
Munitions effectiveness assessment	Was our weapon, our munition and our method the right choice?
Re-attack recommendation	Do we strike it again, strike something else, or change the plan?

Battle damage assessment

BDA in the targeting process pertains to the results of attacks on targets designated by the commander. Producing BDA is primarily an intelligence responsibility, but requires coordination with operational elements to be effective.

Three elements of BDA
Physical damage	How much of the target was physically damaged?
Functional damage	Can the target still do its job, and for how long?
Target system	What has the attack done to the enemy capability this target belongs to?

Task 4.1 — Assess the engagement

NOT DONE

Oblique sensor view of the enemy command post before the attack. Three connected tents stand in a clearing beside a track, with two satellite dishes and a communications mast alongside, and a camouflaged command vehicle parked on the track to the east.

The same command post after the first attack. The centre tent has collapsed into a crater, one satellite dish is down and debris is scattered across the site. Three further craters have burned the ground short of the target. The command vehicle is still upright on the track and appears undamaged.

The same command post after the second attack. Every tent is flattened, the command vehicle is lying on its side, and several craters around the site are burning.

Before the attack

The enemy battalion command post, prior to engagement. Three tents, two satellite dishes, a communications mast and a command vehicle.

Following the first engagement

Physical damage assessment

Estimate the quantitative extent of physical damage to the target. This assessment is based on observed or interpreted damage.

Functional damage assessment

Estimate the effect of the attack on the target to perform its intended mission compared to the operational objective.

Target system assessment

A broad assessment of the overall impact and effectiveness of all types of attack against an entire target system's capability.

Munitions effectiveness assessment

Was the type of munition used against the target effective?

Re-attack recommendation

Do you recommend re-attack?

Following the second engagement

Physical damage assessment

Estimate the quantitative extent of physical damage to the target. This assessment is based on observed or interpreted damage.

Functional damage assessment

Estimate the effect of the attack on the target to perform its intended mission compared to the operational objective.

Target system assessment

A broad assessment of the overall impact and effectiveness of all types of attack against an entire target system's capability.

Munitions effectiveness assessment

Was the type of munition used against the target effective?

Re-attack recommendation

Do you recommend re-attack?

Both engagements assessed. The physical and functional damage changed between the two attacks. The target system assessment did not — the enemy still has somewhere else to command from, and that is the finding the commander acts on.

Measure of performance and measure of effectiveness

Combat assessment judges one engagement. Measure of performance and measure of effectiveness judge whether the targeting strategy as a whole is working.

	Measure of performance (MOP)	Measure of effectiveness (MOE)
The question	Are we doing things right?	Are we doing the right things?
What it measures	Task performance. Was the action taken, and was it done to standard?	Change in the enemy, in what he can do or in how he behaves.
How it is made	Usually counted. Rounds fired, missions sent, minutes taken.	Usually observed and interpreted. Often a trend rather than a single number.
From this operation	The fire mission reached the M101 105 mm howitzer battery four minutes after the report arrived, and the battery fired.	The ATGM section could not engage our vehicles while they were on the bridge.

The two can disagree, and that is why we measure both. At T-0:55 the mission went to the right battery within four minutes and the rounds landed on the ATGM position. Every measure of performance was met. The measure of effectiveness was not, because at T-0:30 the section was still able to engage the crossing. Counting missions alone would never have shown it.

Task 4.2 — Performance or effect

NOT DONE

Each line below is a statement about Operation RIVER GATE. Decide whether it is a measure of performance or a measure of effectiveness.

1. The FSCC sent the fire mission to the M101 105 mm howitzer battery four minutes after the report arrived.

This measures our own action against a standard. It says nothing about the ATGM section.

Nothing here has changed for the enemy. The line measures how quickly we carried out our own task, and that is performance.

2. The ATGM section was unable to engage vehicles on the bridge while the lead battalion crossed.

This is the effect the commander's guidance asked for, written as a change in what the enemy can do.

No friendly task is named here. The statement is about the enemy's capability, and a change in enemy capability is an effect.

3. The M109 155 mm battery fired its complete mission on the ammunition supply point and reported it complete at T+0:50.

The task was carried out. Whether it achieved anything is a separate question, and at T+1:00 no sensor is watching the supply point to answer it.

The line stops at the moment our rounds finished. It measures the task, not what the task achieved.

4. Enemy mortar rounds stopped landing on our soldiers at the crossing site.

We never see the tubes. The change we can observe is the enemy's fire, and stopping that fire is what the commander wanted.

Nobody's task is being measured. This is a change in enemy behaviour, and that is an effect.

5. The bridge was seized intact and stayed usable.

This is the end state the commander set. Every task in the operation exists to serve it.

No task is named here. The line states a condition that either holds or does not, which makes it an effect.

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